Step 7. Null tests, pre-registration, and the 1/r, sign-locked template

Plain English: before touching data, the paper says to lock in a registered analysis and then hammer it with nulls. The physics gives you two fingerprints that are hard to fake: (i) the sign of the drift follows the sign of the flux (outgoing → negative drift; ingoing → positive), and (ii) the amplitude falls off exactly like 1/r. The pipeline must recover those two features and a zero-lag template correlation; lab runs are for software-injection validation, not detections.

What to pre-register (flux-template channel): choose the analysis band, vetoes, stacking rule, and a pass/fail defined by sign + strict 1/r scaling (or, in the visibility channel, a pre-set visibility threshold). Then whiten \(\dot y(t)\) using the measured \(S_y(f)\), build \(s(t)=\int^t L(t')dt'\) so that \(s(f)=L(f)/(i2\pi f)\), and estimate the coefficient \(\lambda\) with GLS: \(\dot y(t)=-\lambda L(t)+\dots\) where GR predicts \(\lambda=G/(c^4 r)\).

Core discriminants (how you tell gravity from junk):

  • Sign-locking: \(\mathrm{sgn}\,\dot\Phi=\text{−}\mathrm{sgn}\,L(t)\) for outgoing flux. This rejects lots of correlated systematics.
  • Distance scaling: repeat at different \(r\) (lab: move source; astro: compare sources). The coefficient must scale as \(1/r\).
  • Zero-lag cross-correlation: the template \(\langle\dot y,L\rangle\) peaks at zero lag with \(\lambda=G/(c^4 r)\).
  • Multiregressor robustness: fit \(\dot y(t)=-\lambda L(t)+a_1\dot r_{\rm Doppler}+a_2T_{\rm plasma}+a_3\delta f_{\rm inst}+n\) and check that the gravitational coefficient survives nuisance subtraction.

Registered nulls (you should pass all of these): shutter the source with the same drive, use a cold dump, run time-slides between sites, and do off-band analyses. Outcome: either \(\lambda\simeq G/(c^4 r)\) within errors, or a clear upper limit; for visibilities, quote a bound on \(S_\Phi\) (both Markovian and filter-weighted).

What lab runs are (and aren’t): near-field EM/thermal couplings swamp the gravitational signal, so lab flux runs are pipeline validations using software injections with strict 1/r scaling; astrophysical campaigns (e.g., a Galactic SN) are where you apply the real template test (sign, zero-lag, and \(\lambda=G/(c^4 r)\)).

Practical geometry notes: define \(r\) as the straight-line source-to-clock-pair distance; keep the two clocks \(\ll r\) so they see the same \(L(t)\); in lab, use \(r\gtrsim 5\text{–}10\,\mathrm{m}\) to tame near-field effects. Demonstrate 1/r by repeating at \(r=\{5,10,20\}\,\mathrm{m}\).


Glossary (for this step)

Symbol Name Meaning (units) Typical value/example Metaphor
\(\lambda\) Flux–drift coefficient \(G/(c^4 r)\) so \(\dot y=-\lambda L\) (s²·kg\(^{-1}\)·m\(^{-2}\)) \(r=10\,\mathrm{m}\Rightarrow \lambda\approx8.3\times10^{-46}\) “Gain knob” from flux to drift
\(L(t)\) Luminosity Power crossing sphere at \(r\) (W) Lab pulse or SN neutrino \(L_\nu(t)\) “Brightness of the source”
\(r\) Areal/straight-line distance Sets 1/r falloff (m) Move source to test 1/r “Distance lever”
\(\dot y(t)\) Redshift drift Slope of \(\ln(\nu_\infty/\nu_r)\) (s\(^{-1}\)) Cross-correlate with \(L(t)\) at zero lag “Pitch change rate”
\(S_y(f)\) Clock noise PSD One-sided fractional-freq spectrum (Hz\(^{-1}\)) Used to whiten \(\dot y\) “Noise map of the dial”

Ready for Step 8 — Lever A in detail: the controlled-flux (lab) protocol, estimators, and uncertainty propagation (the nuts and bolts you’d run in code).